Northern Trust Asset Management’s 2023 Capital Market Forecast

Oct 5, 2023

Northern Trust’s Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) report, an annual report of long-term average annualized return expectations for a wide range of asset classes, forecasts below-trend global growth at an annualized rate of 2.4% over the next 10 years, moderating developed-market inflation of 2.4%, and a lower global equity return of 6.3% a year on average. The CMA report’s asset class forecasts are driven by six key themes that Northern Trust investment experts see affecting markets and the economy over the next 10 years: restraints on global economic growth, geopolitical fault lines, adaptation to persistent inflation, central bank concessions to inflation, a sustainable green transition, and growing private markets.

Rooted in the firm’s deep capital market analysis, the CMA report informs the investment decisions and asset allocation recommendations made by Northern Trust, which as of June 30, 2023, had US$1.4 trillion in assets under management. Forecasts are created with a “forward-looking, historically aware” approach, analyzing the past drivers of returns across asset classes and developing investment themes that inform how those return drivers may evolve in the future.

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• Here is a link to the CMA report- https://www.capitalmarketsassumptions.com/
• Here is a link to the press release announcing the CMA report- https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230912762715/en/Northern-Trust-Forecasts-Slow-Economic-Growth-and-Moderating-Inflation-Over-the-Next-10-Years
• Here is a link to the podcast I did with Chris in October of last year- https://www.advisorperspectives.com/podcasts/2022/10/05/northern-trust-asset-managements-capital-market-forecast

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